Is Something Cookin' in Condi's Kitchen?
Okay, let's step back a minute and look the ceasefire in Lebanon from a distance, because we are forgetting a very important factor in this equation: the Israelis.
Israel would have been justified in telling the USA and the UN to shove their resolution without benefit of Surgi-lube, and then continue attending to the long-overdue business of cracking some Islamo-monkey skulls. And considering the fact that international law would actually provide the defense for Israel's right to wage total war against any nation that threatens her safety, the UN would, as usual, look like a bunch of anti-Semitic goathumping idiots- which is of course what they are. But I digress.
Now, the people of Israel are sick of having their hands tied by the UN while the UN allowed terrorists to smack them with impunity forever and ever, amen. So the Knesset and the Israeli population essentially forced Olmert to grow some cajones when all he intended to do was just lob a few token bombs over the border and call it good. Olmert's political days are probably numbered, if for no other reason than that.
But I suspect that there is more to this than meets the eye. I could be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time. But bear with me on this one, because I think that I have a plausible idea about what might be going down.
Think about it- If the Israelis would not let Olmert and the Knesset back down, then why would the Israelis suddenly allow their leaders to concede to the UN when they know the UN does not give damn number one for Israel's survival? Did they have a change of heart? Could they no longer stomach the war? Did the troops run out of gefilte fish?
Let's see... No, no, and, uh... no.
Anyone who thinks the Israelis have no stomach for fighting does not know the Israelis. The same goes for anyone who thinks the Israelis will stake their survival on a piece of paper with the Turd-Hill Bay Debate Club letterhead. It just ain't so.
My father-in-law, who is a tank driver in the IDF reserve, shed some light on the mentality of the street-level Israeli for me. These people are completely used to violence. It's an everyday thing. They get up, eat their breakfasts, grab their briefcases, and run a zig-zag pattern to their cars. They have been literally fighting for their survival for sixty years. These are people whose wardrobes coordinate with their sidearms. They are tired of giving their land away to their murderers. They are tired of having their hands tied by the UN -and by the United States. And they aren't going to simply stop defending themselves from Islamic animals because we or the UN say so.
So what is the proverbial deal? Well, here is what I think "The Deal" is. It's just my opinion, but then, that's all anyone else's opinions are, too, so nyah.
I spy a thing that I shall call "Something," and the place that "Something" is, I shall call "Up."
I am not convinced that we are seeing a sudden case of pandemic catastrophic stupidity. The suddenness with which Israel has decided to stop throwing rocks and jump on the Kumbahyah train with the USA and the UN- when the whole nation was eager to knock hell out of the Hezbollah goathumpers- has set my antennae twitching.
Furthermore, Condi Rice may have us all puzzled right now, but I feel fairly confident in saying that the criminal stupidity of Madeline Albright has not found another host in our current SoS. No, I definitely smell something cooking in Condi's kitchen.
Digress with me for a moment...
Consider one Muhammed Ali, former heavyweight cham-peen of the world. I loved to watch him box. He had a way of tricking his opponent into thinking he had Ali beat and thus dropping his guard. Then when his opponent got cocky and reckless, Ali would proceed to beat the everlovin' dookie out of his hapless opponent.
Armed with this imagery, let's look at Israel/Hezbollah situation again:
1) A month into the conflict, when Israelis are knee-deep in the hoopla, the Knesset gets together and says "Lookit. This ain't no six-day war. These pighumpers are more firmly entrenched than we thought, and Lebanon ain't helping, Cedar Revolution or not. CNN is telling the world that Hezzies are the good guys, and the morons are believing it because the pighumpers hide in hospitals and we gotta blow 'em up to get to the dudes. This ain't workin'. We need a plan B."
2) Pres. Bush gets a friendly phone call. Then Condi's phone rings. A plan is hatched.
3) Hezbollah states that they will not honor any ceasefire proposal. Condi, Dubya, and Ehud know that in order for the plan to work, Hezbollah has to somehow be coaxed to sign on. But how?
4) Chirac's phone rings: Condi explains that Israel is out of her depth and needs a way to back off, but Hezbollah won't let it happen. Somebody needs to talk to Hezbollah and get them to stop swearing to continue the fighting so Israel can go home. Can Jacques please talk some sense into his friends in Beirut? He can? Great!
5) Condi and Dubya announce that in cooperation with France, a cease-fire resolution has been crafted for submission to the UNSC- much to the surprise of the rest of the world and to the dismay of Americans, who were salivating over the possibility of a Bush foreign policy with some actual teeth in it- myself included.
6) UNSC ratifies the resolution (After all, any resolution involving France is good for global stability, right...?)
7) Hezbollah and Israel sign on (although Hezbollah still chooses to toss a few more rocks at Israel after the ceasefire goes into effect).
8) Hezbollah claims victory. France claims moral superiority. The UN congratulates itself. Israel and our Administration look like powerless, slack-jawed fools. Everybody's happy, right? The world is back on its axis and the sun shines its happy face once again.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon...
The Lebanese PM is forced to put together an actual military force, man up, police southern Lebanon, and oh, by the way... umm... disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah, of course, tells the Lebanese PM, "You ain't disarming nobody, hombre." (One can imagine the PM looking at the UN, looking at Hezbollah, and then going pale.) And Lebanon's own slapdash, Hezbollah-infested military has to do the policing until a multinational force jumps into the sandbox, which could take awhile, and will produce results that are the diplomatic equivalent of polishing a turd.
Also meanwhile, Israel officially takes the high road, does not shoot back at Hezbollah when they violate the ceasefire a mere 48 hours into it, and draws back toward home, apparently licking its wounds and with its own cabinet in disarray.
Katyushas come sailing into Israeli airspace from southern Lebanon once again, possibly less than a month from now, because if Hezbollah lacks anything, it is self control and coherent thought. Israel can now point to the UN resolution, cite international law, and proceed to wage total war against Lebanon/Hezbollah with the assured confidence of a nation that has international law- and a UN resolution- on its side. And this time, there will be no chance for Hezbollah to infest hospitals and cry foul.
Does anyone know the Yiddish word for "Lope-a-dope"?